Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JAVIER-16 in Mexico from 07 Aug 2016 09:00 UTC to 08 Aug 2016 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JAVIER-16

in Mexico

08 Aug 2016 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JAVIER-16 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	120 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (09 Aug 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	120 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 660000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Aug 2016 09:00	93	330 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	07 Aug 2016 15:00	93	590 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	07 Aug 2016 21:00	102	670 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	08 Aug 2016 03:00	120	700 thousand	1 thousand	Mexico
5	08 Aug 2016 09:00	111	630 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	08 Aug 2016 15:00	102	650 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	08 Aug 2016 21:00	111	660 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Aug 2016 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18, -104.3
2	07 Aug 2016 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.7, -105	Mexico
3	07 Aug 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	39000 people	19.5, -106.6	Mexico
4	08 Aug 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	20.6, -107.7	Mexico
5	08 Aug 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	180000 people	21.5, -108.3	Mexico
6	08 Aug 2016 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	240000 people	22, -109.2	Mexico
7	08 Aug 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	330000 people	22.5, -109.6	Mexico
7	09 Aug 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	550000 people	23.3, -110.4	Mexico
7	09 Aug 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	88000 people	24.3, -111.4	Mexico
7	10 Aug 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	77000 people	25.2, -112.3	Mexico
7	10 Aug 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	41000 people	26.2, -113.2	Mexico
7	11 Aug 2016 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.5, -114	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico
Nayarit	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico
Baja California	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
La Paz	Baja California Sur	Mexico	Major city	170000 people
Villa Constitución	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
San Juanico	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Cabo San Lucas		139				0
Los Cabos International	SJD	109	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Leon	LAP	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
La Paz		26				0
Arroyo Capo		20				0
Villa Constitucion	VIB	43				0
La Gloria		34				0
Abreojos	AJS	unknown				0
San Ignacio 1	SGM	244				0
Guerrero Negro	GUB	18				0
Guerrero Negro		18				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
San Lucas		Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo		Mexico
Buenavista		Mexico
La Paz		Mexico
San Juan de la Costa	MXSJC	Mexico
Puerto Madalena		Mexico
San Carlos	MXSCR	Mexico
Ipala		Mexico
El Tabaco		Mexico
Prt Venustiano Carranza		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Puerto Charley, Mexico. This height is estimated for 09 Aug 2016 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (24 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 09 Aug 2016 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Aug 2016 21:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 22:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 23:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 13:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 16:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	10 Aug 2016 03:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 15:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 19:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 17:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	10 Aug 2016 02:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 07:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 07:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 05:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 05:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 14:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 15:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	09 Aug 2016 08:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	10 Aug 2016 01:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	10 Aug 2016 01:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	10 Aug 2016 01:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	09 Aug 2016 05:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	09 Aug 2016 09:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	10 Aug 2016 03:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	10 Aug 2016 04:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.